Shards of Order Shared Deck Calculator

Shared deck draw odds

Estimate how often a key card appears in your opening draws.

Deck size Copies of target card Cards drawn Calculate odds

The Shards of Order Deck Calculator on this page helps you plan the party’s shared deck—the single library Soldier, Scholar, and Exile draw from in every fight. Because the game uses persistent progression rather than roguelite wipes, bad math in your library persists for hours. This tool translates deck composition into hypergeometric probabilities so you can see whether a list fails on turn three or merely feels unlucky.

Use the interactive calculator embedded on this page to enter deck size, role bands, and key cards, then read the sections below to interpret results alongside Deckbuilding, Card tier list, and Builds.

Interactive calculator on this page

Scroll to the calculator widget to:

• Set total deck size and number of cards drawn by a target turn
• Split copies across Soldier, Scholar, and Exile role bands
• Flag must-hit cards such as guards, mana setup, or mark sources
• Compare scenarios before and after proposed cuts

Results update instantly. Export mental notes into your demo run, then validate in combat using Combat System sequencing rules.

Sibling tools and hubs:

• Tools Overview — all planners in one place
• Tier List hub — ranked staples to test in the calculator
• Characters — role definitions for band tagging

Why hypergeometric intuition matters

When you draw without replacement from a finite deck, odds are hypergeometric, not independent coin flips. Early draws change late draws. Shards of Order fights are short enough that this effect is brutal: a 12% miss chance on turn three guards becomes a wipe on boss telegraphs from Boss Guide.

Classic beginner mistake: “I run four guards in forty cards, so I’m fine.” Four copies in forty is not 10% per draw across a five-card opening; the relevant question is at least one guard in your first N draws, which the calculator computes directly.

Worked intuition (no calculator required)

Suppose a 30-card deck with 6 guard cards and you see 8 cards by turn three (opening plus draws—adjust to your table rules):

• Hypergeometric probability of zero guards in 8 draws drops faster than (24/30)^8 intuition because guards removed early increase non-guard density.
• Adding one guard copy often helps more than adding one finisher if guards are below reliable thresholds.

The on-page tool runs exact math; this section teaches directional reasoning when you cannot sim mid-fight.

Mapping roles to bands

Tag each card copy into bands the three heroes care about:

Soldier band — Guards, taunts, rage generators, rage spenders (Soldier).

Scholar band — Mana setup, cheap control, protection, expensive payoffs (Scholar).

Exile band — Marks, volleys, finishers (Exile).

Neutral band — Draw smoothing, universal barriers, or relic-linked cards that any hero might cast.

Neutral cards still occupy draw slots—do not hide clutter here.

Key questions to simulate

Run these scenarios every time you change the list:

1. Guard online by turn three — Required for many demo bosses; pair with Soldier profile tips.
2. Scholar setup before payoff — Separate counts for cheap setup versus five-mana spells.
3. Mark before finisher — Exile fails quietly when finishers exceed mark sources.
4. Dual-role cards — Count them in both bands conservatively (half weight) to avoid optimism bias.
5. Post-cut deltas — Compare odds before spending upgrade currency; small cuts can move thresholds sharply in 28–35 card decks.

Time-counter combat interaction

Probabilities assume cards you draw are ** playable** on intended segments. Queue mistakes do not show up in hypergeometric output. If odds look good but fights fail, revisit Combat System and demo queue notes in Demo Changes.

Scholar’s three mana on ally damage rule also means some turns intentionally skip guards—calculator scenarios should include planned chip damage lines, not only maximal block lines.

Fracture and redraw (limits of deck math)

The calculator models draw composition, not recovery economy. Revival adds Fracture; redraw effects can damage the party (Laws and Fracture). A deck with strong odds but no barriers may still fail attrition even when guards look fine on paper.

Add barrier/neutral band targets if simulations show strong offense but weak stabilization.

Example planning workflow

1. Import your demo deck counts after a chapter.
2. Simulate turn-three guard and Scholar setup thresholds.
3. If guard odds fall below your comfort zone (many players target ~75–85% for teaching bosses), cut lowest-impact attacks from Card tier list C band.
4. Re-sim after adding one guard instead of one finisher—compare delta.
5. Cross-check relic plans on Equipment tier list if cuts alone cannot hit thresholds.

Launch versus demo card pools

Full release on July 28, 2026 expands pools beyond demo data. Re-run calculator defaults after Release Date patches list new staples. Official download links: Official Links.

Related guides

• Deckbuilding — curve theory and band targets
• Builds — sample lists as calculator inputs
• Boss Guide — fight-specific must-hit windows
• Tools Overview — sibling utilities